One must understand that iterations could go on for the next thirty years. And they will probably do so, but not under 4DS management.
In my opinion, it is only external circumstances that put what is beeing done at IMEC under 4DS apparent responsability. They have to go on with the iterations and tests under 4DS name because the transfer of this responsability to futur owner(s) of the technology cannot proceed at the moment, for reasons that are not under 4DS control. Imo.
They don't control the timing and they probably receive contradictory instructions... And then they have to explain that to shareholders.
The board doesn't mind because they know they are part of the plan. And they know that the price wont drop much because it has found a much larger support : - Chi-x transactions are a growing percentage of ASX+Chi-x daily trades on 4DS shares (an uncommon situation among ASX specs). It means that foreign shareholders (most probably US) are more and more active on the market, providing a larger pool of cash to sustain the price. - There have been control buyings on market since july. Those shares wont be sold for a quick profit because they have been bought for another purpose.
In my opinion the most probable scenario is a transfer of 4DS technology to a pool of buyers. This pool of buyers already exist with the consortium led by Bain capital (60% of Kioxia).
So if Kioxia buy 4DS, there will be at least three owners : Kioxia, SK Hinix, Apple. (Toshiba Corp will probably sell the 40% stake it still hold in Kioxia. WDC will be part of the game, being the co-owner of the fab and having access to the technology via the licence.
But if this is realy the plan, there are lots of moving parts and we have to wait until all those parts fall into their right place.
What we know for sure is that Bain Capital want the Kioxia IPO as soon as possible. They want their money back and if the kioxia IPO is postponed until end of 2021, they may find another way and decide that they will IPOed another corporate entity that will hold the Kioxia shares (and IMO the 4DS shares).
For 4DS, there may be other solutions, but if we take into account the indirect control that HGST/WDC has on 4DS (JDA, NDA, facilities etc...), a takeover by some entity outside the group formed by WDC / Kioxia / Bain Capital and partners, doesn't seem realy plausible.
Most probably the 4DS board will do what they are told to do and the corporate transaction will come when it will come.
But accumulation will continue. And as informations and anlysies percolate into the global market, the trend is up for 4DS.
NO FINANCIAL ADVICE.
4DS Price at posting:
12.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
