Just like Covid provided tailwinds for DW8 the China wine tariffs will ignite the after burners for DW8.
I was thinking about the $1.2B wine exported to China & possible scenarios this morning. I concluded that the price will double-triple overnight making it not competitive anymore against European, South American & North American wines.
I expected exports to China to drop to $200M as some wealthy wine connoisseurs will still prefer Australian wines & pay the premium.
The remaining $1B would have to be offloaded locally or internationally thereby creating tailwinds for DW8 to expand into international markets & locally via B2B & DTC. 80% is most likely tied up with the major players leaving 20% or $200M for DW8 to gain a share.
$200M via B2B @ 10% fees = $20M DW8 revenue. There will also be additional logistics revenue.
Not long now before sub 5c shares will be a distant memory.
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