That's the thing though, they could just as easily announce a $2...

That's the thing though, they could just as easily announce a $2 million+ monthly profit unexpectedly as they are neither held back by production capacity or lengthy transit time as they were in previous seasons. Local US manufacturers don't even need to be ordering massive amounts yet to build up stock for the summer season given the zinc oxide is only a few days of road freight away from local warehouses and we're still in US winter. We are going to see the summer season demand most likely from March and onwards.

Even the total market only operating at 75% the prior demand still allows for considerable zinc mineral market growth in overall category and also for them to match or beat prior levels without constraints around production and transit.

I think the only crystal ball insight we have so far are the comments made by Banana Boat regarding they are not intending to de-stock inventory this upcoming season as they did during the COVID summer. They "expect the US consumer to be there" and see upside in domestic US sunscreen use as being outside is not only safe, but encouraged. Not to mention their intentional and core focus on shift to mineral.

At the end of the day, you only have to look beyond a 6 month horizon. There's tremendous upside, it's already been through the worst, and it's in an even better position to capitalise than it ever has been before.