monark, I don't mind debating any of the disagreements and yes we will have a much better picture tomorrow. It's good to flesh out debatable points now, as investors may use this to shape their questions for tomorrow.
I will try to address the argument you raised.
I believe you are misinterpreting the announcement. If you re-read my post you will see the relevant number in the image you share is not the $6.6m but rather the $9.6m earnings - which is basically cash from operations (i.e cash inflows less operating costs less hedging costs)
Refer their announcement the two following lines:
"Positive cash from operations remains strong - forecasted at ~$7.5m for Q2 2023"
and
"the Company is anticipating free cashflow of ~$7.5m for the quarter."
It seems they are referring to cash from operations in the second line. If true, I believe the announcement today is effectively a downgrade from the $9.6m forecast, which I expected given macro factors.
Also, note the forecast was made on 28 April use a forecast price of Oil of $97.02 A$/bbl, yet as per my estimates its trading around USD $60 a barrel, net of differential of around $11 for WCS, or AUD $89 A$/bbl currently. So I would expect a downgrade, not an upgrade. Especially as they say production rates are in line with estimates. So I don't see a source for an upgrade here.
If I am right then true Free Cash Flow is lower by another $3m from the $7.5m generated, and I would expect negative FCF for the remaining two quarters of this calendar year if oil remains at this price level given capex plans to at least maintain production.
On another point, your comment here doesn't quite feel right "Naturally CAPEX (to maintain production) will increase in Q3 and Q4 however if its to maintain, rather than grow production, FCF will increase compared to historical numbers where production was growing."
Management themselves admit they need $25-35m to maintain production: refer to Note 2, page 3 of the announcement dated 31 Jan 2023.
I know you or others will be inclined to suggest it be left for the webinar tomorrow, and more will come to light. But as I said I am hastily raising these issues now, as it may help others here mold their questions in time for the webinar. If I were a holder I wouldn't let management off without the tough questions.
Happy to be proven wrong on anything I said above. I am relatively new to oil investing, but I am skeptical as I am not new to the typical spin of listed companies.
Just my opinions, please do your own research. Keenly waiting for the webinar tomorrow. Have at em', holders!
(20min delay)