Bulk reply!
retorn123:I don't think I am wrong on this price of oil assumptions for Calima. I am comparing to their own guidance.
If I use the Q2 WCS of $60 that you quoted, and I convert using the average AUD / USD of 67c over the same period gives $89 AUD. The forecast on 28 April 2023 used $97 as the assumption. The other way of looking at it the $97 A$/bbl price forecast using 67c USD/AUD exchange gives $65 yet WCS is looking like its much lower than that this quarter. See for yourself. The premium they historically received on one of the sites is no where near enough to compensate either.
You also made a comment about strategically choosing the March quarter, due supposedly due to a timing difference in production flows which negatively affected Calima's comparison. This is not true. I chose March quarter because its the most recent set of figures. This is most sensical given I am using today's EVs.Also, I never believed management's stories about timing of production rate boosts, prepaid capex etc. This is why I used a whole year of data for the analysis of cash flow performance. It reduces sensitivities around quarterly spend timing as much as possible.
The stories about timing differences is what roped me into the company in the first place. Ignore the noise, and just compare. Also, my reply to monark kind of addresses the suggestions you are implying.
invertedva:No I didn't take into account expenditure on Montney. From what I see in the March 2023 quarter this was $1.9m. I am not sure what they spent on it in CY2022. It seemed rather immaterial at that point. I didn't nitpick on CE1's or any of the peer's figures, I used their full reports' figures. Many of the companies in the list had extra capex figures for all sorts of testing programs, exploration etc. If you adjust for this, you have to adjust a lot of others, only to likely end up square in the end anyway.
monark:I just forget hedging losses etc. I think its overcomplicating rather simple matters.
According to Freeman, their OCF and FCF this quarter is circa $7.5m. x 4 = $30m for whole year basis. They also reveal to the market in the footnotes of one of their recent announcements that they need A$25-35m to maintain current production. This means nothing is left for actual growth according to their own numbers.
I also don't believe #8 and #9 wells grew production to new heights. Average production during the March 2023 quarter was 4,532 boepd, noting
"The bulk of the incremental production from these wells [#8 and #9 wells] will be realized in Q2 and beyond. " Yet the rate per their update 2 days ago was only 4,125 boepd? It kind of sits in the average of production since Feb 2022 per their chart in March 2023 update.
So how much has it really grown? Nothing to date, and not forecast to either: See
this line from them in the update this week:"Production optimisation and maintenance for the coming months, coupled with new well drilling in H2-2023, is anticipated to hold average daily production between 4,000 and 4,300 boe/d for the balance of the year. "When CE1 was around 15c and oil around $75, I said on here I think the Blackspur business was a dud. I haven't changed my view since. It's was a bad purchase for $30m or however much they paid at the time. I moved my sentiment to sell after studying the recent data points more closely.
rosencrantzI owned millions of shares at one point myself, it doesn't make me or anyone else special. The point isn't cheeky. After all, isn't CE1's value mainly in the Montney asset they own? If they sold the oil business for half it's market cap I would've thought the stock price would rise quite strongly (just a speculation). Not to mention eliminating a pending cap raise discount which I believe is now going to be embedding itself in the stock price.
Anyway that's enough from me, I made my arguments and I have been rather clear. I am keen to see this next 4C!
Just my opinions, please as always do your own research
(20min delay)