Interesting wrap from the Friday trade pause, many pundits on the HC threads getting a good estimate of the company's actions, some I disagree with, so here we go...
For my two cents, I think that the over subscription at $2.75M is actually a hedge by the sophisticated or top 20 investors against the 0.006 / 0.008 share value credit raise inflation factor that we've already seen. IMO that are more committed than some on this thread give them credit for. They have gone hard early with the knowledge that a gas pay will put the final credit raise for drilling Lead E at around 2-2.5c. I'm thinking the total credit raise will be circa $5m to cover the drill of Lead E and the seismic surveys with quantification of camber sizes.
They would know that the drill outcomes to date match closely the predicted from the company geos on LD-1 and are rating the chance of success much higher than 38% at this point. IMO there would have been a discussion to take this approach on the CR by the top 20 in the event of Dongara/Wagina confirmation.
Drilling is no limit hold em' and they've put a large stack in to leverage the gains early.
But hey, I'm just another retail pleb outside the tent looking in
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