An interesting post Hotdog which promoted me to reflect on some of the issues you have raised while I wait for the family to drag me out into the heat yet again while we are on holiday - I would much rather relax and read a book in the air conditioning while they "frolic" in the heat but such is life.
If you were to look at AUZ right now (December 2022) - stand alone without all of the background what have you got:
Sconi - A Nickel mine with reasonable economics, exploration upside - well located near two Nickel refineries with a sideline of Scandium to bump up revenue a bit.
An engagement with LGE albeit with some missed deadlines (but still there) and with the CEO having advised that he is in discussions with them re revisions to the offtake and further enhancing the relationship
A new CEO who has hit the ground running, has a reasonably successful CR to put sufficient cash in the bank and who has outlined a revised strategic plan (acknowledging the retail CR only got around 50% - but it was not the main CR game)
Some other interesting projects which they have not developed.
A risky investment to be sure but there are a lot of other small exploration companies that have less going for them on the surface right now than AUZ.
Of course no one will look at AUZ without the history.
The SKI offtake, the extensions and the eventual withdrawal of SKI has obviously impacted AUZ's credibility in the market. This was clearly shown by the reaction of the market to the LGE announcement which did not receive anything like the SP rise that AUZ experienced with the SKI announcement. The LGE situation at present is similar to SKI - 2 missed deadlines with extensions so I totally understand the cynicism the market will have that LGE will go the same way as SKI.
I tipped some money into the CR. As I indicated it essentially was some of the tax I will need to pay FY 2023 - and as I believe the LGE/AUZ negotiations will get wrapped up one way or the other prior to the end of the FY either I will generate a loss to offset the investment I made or have a larger tax problem.
Would I invest in AUZ right now? - interesting question - the back story would certainly be a negative though I have been investing long enough to see "dogs get rid of their feas" on occasions and have done well at times with companies that have a "difficult" back story.
The question is would I have been close enough to AUZ not being a shareholder to assess some of the positives now that I believe partly offset the risks:
* If I was close enough to evaluate the potentially positive aspects I see at the moment, quite possibility - I would consider it as a high risk / high reward investment and put a few $ in (though probably not to the level of exposure I presently have).
* If I wasn't close enough to form the assessment I have - probably not compared to other opportunities I am monitoring on my watchlist.
As would be clear from previous posts I continue to be optimistic that Holmes can get a deal across the line with LGE for the reasons I have outlined in previous posts - time will tell if my optimism is unfounded.
(20min delay)