I'm relatively new to the stock (currently not holding), but this is my best guess as to what management is guiding towards.
- Mgt are guiding to ~$40m FY24 revenue - therefore Q4 should be decent at about $11m
- Some delay in revenue to cash receipts, and a bit of noise over the last 2qtrs, hopefully a decent Q4 for Cash Receipts
- A lot of deferred costs will wash through in Q4 (Q2 and Q3 artificially lower with cost mgt). Aligning that with mgt's comments of $65m cost (implying $25m loss for FY24) - I think Q4 net operating cash outflows will be ~$10m.
- Following the cap raise, and my guess at Q4 operational cash burn, I'm guessing a 30 June cash balance of ~$16m.
Looking at FY25;
- I'm guessing mgt are aiming for $50m in revenue
- Will extract a further $5m of annual savings during the year
- Aiming to be breakeven during FY25 (therefore I'm assuming Q4)
- I'm guessing a further ~$8m operational cash burn to breakeven
So:
- Current market cap of about $50m, for a company with $50m in annual revenue.
- A path to profitability although this is yet to be shown
- Upside is potential recovery of the funds stolen - any insight as to the likelihood of this? (would insurance cover fraud/theft?)
- This feels cheap although it comes with risk. Also feels like there isn't a catalyst for SP growth until perhaps October 2024 when the Q1 appendix 4C is published and revenue/cost-out is clear and clean.
- Why wouldn't I keep my powder dry until Sep/Oct??
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Mkt cap ! $27.68M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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4 | 542039 | 0.029 |
3 | 190000 | 0.028 |
1 | 70000 | 0.027 |
1 | 400000 | 0.026 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.032 | 1000 | 1 |
0.033 | 324019 | 3 |
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