I'm relatively new to the stock (currently not holding), but...

I'm relatively new to the stock (currently not holding), but this is my best guess as to what management is guiding towards.

• Mgt are guiding to ~$40m FY24 revenue - therefore Q4 should be decent at about $11m
• Some delay in revenue to cash receipts, and a bit of noise over the last 2qtrs, hopefully a decent Q4 for Cash Receipts
• A lot of deferred costs will wash through in Q4 (Q2 and Q3 artificially lower with cost mgt). Aligning that with mgt's comments of $65m cost (implying $25m loss for FY24) - I think Q4 net operating cash outflows will be ~$10m.
• Following the cap raise, and my guess at Q4 operational cash burn, I'm guessing a 30 June cash balance of ~$16m.

Looking at FY25;

• I'm guessing mgt are aiming for $50m in revenue
• Will extract a further $5m of annual savings during the year
• Aiming to be breakeven during FY25 (therefore I'm assuming Q4)
• I'm guessing a further ~$8m operational cash burn to breakeven

So:

• Current market cap of about $50m, for a company with $50m in annual revenue.
• A path to profitability although this is yet to be shown
• Upside is potential recovery of the funds stolen - any insight as to the likelihood of this? (would insurance cover fraud/theft?)
• This feels cheap although it comes with risk. Also feels like there isn't a catalyst for SP growth until perhaps October 2024 when the Q1 appendix 4C is published and revenue/cost-out is clear and clean.
• Why wouldn't I keep my powder dry until Sep/Oct??