re: Ann: Completion of Senior Loan Refinancin... " I reckon it's...

re: Ann: Completion of Senior Loan Refinancin... " I reckon it's got 3.30 in it short term"

I really would like you to be correct in your crystal balling.

Unless the real estate prices in Japan stabilize and/or increase a bit, AJA can not be seen as a growth stock, and so SP valuation will be based on the return (yield) investor could reasonably expect.

If the 2 distributions of 20c could be maintained, SP of $3.30 would imply yield of 12.12%.

Looking at historical SP's this stock was usually trading at 14% or higher implied yield. This was because the negative growth in NTA and FX risks.

Looking over last 2 years buying the stock at 14% implied yield still resulted in very poor real returns due to NTA continuing to fall and the distributions trending down from 70c a a year to now only 40c ( our optimistic projection, not guaranteed).

So with implied yield of 14%, my crystal ball is projecting more realistic $2.86 - other thing being equal.

Of course other factors almost never remain equal and so I hope your forecast will be closer to the mark than mine.

Higher NTA or higher yen (lower $A) or higher distributions are needed to drive the SP north. Preferably two of those or better still all three.

IF real estate prices stabilize or start to rise, even modest percentage increase would reduce the investment risk and investors would probably settle for lower implied yield since the positive capital gain would be factored in assumed returns.

SO there you have it in the nutshell, let us see what will the future bring.