re: Ann: Completion of Senior Loan Refinancin... Fair enough, as...

re: Ann: Completion of Senior Loan Refinancin...
Fair enough, as I said I would prefer your numbers than mine.

One thing that comes to mind is the old disclaimer that the past results do not guarantee future performance.

I mean, look at Tiger Woods, at one stage unbeatable, on the golf courses as well as in the bedrooms. And now?

AJA did trade in December 2010 for implied yield between 12.5 and 13.5% pa.

By the same token you could buy it in October for implied yield 15.78% pa, hence my previous statement that investors in this stock expect at least 14% implied yield would average out from these numbers.

You are certainly right that AJA like most shares do rise in value as the dividend date gets closer.

Given that distribution is now only 20c a share, compared with previously 22.5 c(adjusted for capital reconstruction), the $3.30 would be in the ball path, ceteris paribus.

Most important factor that could impact your valuation would be news of any damage to the properties from the recent disasters.
There was no damage report from the company, is it realy zero?
Collateral damage? They talk about Australian GDP being impacted significantly, Tokyo and our tenants are much closer to the problems.

FX impact? While the rents are fixed in yen and should not affect the amortization to any large degree, it will cost a lot more in yen now than last Xmas to pay same total amount.
Valuations in $A and hence NTA will be lower too. Distributions are hedged this time, I believe, but NTA is not.

As I said elsewhere, I prefer to look at almost the worst case scenario and so I am rarely disappointed and often pleasantly surprised. Let's hope it will be the latter.