Yep it is going to take time to repair the FY25 comments. At some stage the market is going to start looking at 2026 and 2027 beyond. Hopefully this occurs well before 2025. Those later years are driven by BP33 ore with the possibility that it is supplemented by mining one of Core's other deposits. There is a distinct chance that the BP33 study could come out with higher throughput than the market is currently assuming. A scenarios like 250ktpa appear possible and this would represent a circa 150%+ capacity expansion from current 2024 forecasts. Even higher scenarios involving additional DMS and mining BP33 faster or in conjunction with another ore body could also emerge.
How could BP33 be 250ktpa?Basically by combining a small increase in mined volumes adding processing capacity through a mid-sized flotation plant of around 500ktpa. The flotation plant would improve recoveries from both ends of the processing spectrum - fines that don't currently get into the DMS and reprocessing of DMS output middlings that still have good lithium content but not enough to be included in the targeted cut-off grade. This should enable above DFS recovery rates as fines would be converted to a SC5.5 to SC6.0 product and less lithium would be lost as middling tailings.
The DFS shows a 1.1Mt processing ceiling but the actual DMS ceiling may be somewhat lower than this as crushing fines don't enter the DMS. For this example I'll assume the material entering the DMS process is limited at 900ktpa (aka 200ktpa of fines were never planned to enter the DMS). In the original design this would be assuming the DMS recovered 87.6% of the material presented to it and nothing from fines (200kt*0% + 900kt*87.6% = 1,100*71.7%).
Lets assume BP33 is now mined at 1.2Mt/yr. The scoping study is still being designed so it should be possible to design for this rate of ore. I'll assume BP33 is better for its fines than Grants but not great with 25% fines (300kt) suitable to go straight to further crushing and a flotation plant. 900ktpa would then go to the existing DMS so this is at the existing DMS's capacity limit. Another 100-200ktpa of flotation capacity is used by DMS middlings (and any stockpiled fines). If fines were 35% then they would use 420kt of a 500ktpa capacity so there would still be capacity to process some Middlings.
BP33 ore has an average grade of 1.48%. 1.2Mt * an assumed 75% cumulative recovery from DMS/flotation * (1.48%/5.6%) = 238ktpa of SC5.6. If the combined recovery rate from DMS+Flotation was higher at 80% then this alternative would be producing 253ktpa of SC5.6. Several other company scoping studies have indicated circa 80% recovery rates from DMS+Flotation so it is considered possible.
And the existing crushing plant should already be designed to a 1.2Mtpa capacity although further crushing for the Fines circuit would be needed. However what is really needed is not a HC post by some random guy, but company communications around what they are thinking for 2026 and beyond. What is the big vision under Gareth?
(20min delay)