Would expect to see a change in sub holding by now if it was...

Would expect to see a change in sub holding by now if it was accumulation on market, given how long it's been going on. If it's about controlling the VWAP, then T/O a likely explanation (in absence of CR), and so it's all about risk reduction really. TH finalisation was absolutely necessary in this respect.

Assuming mgmt know or suspect what's coming, look at the "loyalty" options. They simultaneously bolster the balance sheet and would reward shareholders prior to notice of an offer.

But there's a tight window. Drill results will mess with the VWAP for obvious reasons, so an offer would follow ASAP after the options closing date (late Feb).

Who knows? Feb/Mar will be interesting no matter what.
GLTAH