thank you but you give me too much credit- hit the occasional...

thank you but you give me too much credit- hit the occasional bit of luck every now and then. Hopefully will be right on this- not particularly long to find out!

Out of interest, for those that know the tire industry well- it looks to me like the numbers coming from Australian operators are far superior to numbers coming internationally. For instance- the number that NTD reports are likely to be far superior from the already disclosed information than listed operators overseas (CTB, Bridgestone). Obviously the American market is different after the branded manufacturers decided to go vertical to take on American tire and distribution, but a similar pattern appears to be playing out in Europe with bankrupt wholesalers in Germany and judging by the pending writedown of NTDs South African assets - elsewhere as well.

From what I’ve read of the competitive environment taking out Tyre and tube + T4U, means that NTD is by far the largest wholesaler, and should command a premium given its place in the industry structure right now (I mean look at the brands they have covered....). An intriguing possibility that I hadn’t grasped is that given the scale and potentially much better and quicker recovery in the Australian market, there may be opportunities to expand internationally at the bottom of the cycle too (depends a lot on how quick Australia recovers compared to the rest of the world). However, I really don’t have enough of a grasp of the global tyre industry to properly ascertain the likelihood of this outcome. I would have thought that cheap geographic expansion in South Africa would at the very least be possible.

Anyway it would be good to canvas the opinions of others as to the various possibilities that may have been overlooked to go on the offensive here...