Ann: Conditional approval for up to US$150m from KEXIM, page-45

With the South Korean partnership now being confirmed (which allays any concern some have over the binding supply agreements timelines but I'm sure they will look to downramp in another manner as appears to be happening) - Time now to focus on the equity but a couple of questions first:

Will management make the FID declaration on final Euler Hermes support? - well overdue and re the gas supply agreement terms of FID now in July that would appear managements target - to give FID in July when Euler Hermes support closed out.

Where to does the remaining approx 600T of production find a home? It may be that it is accounted for in below figures however it would be exceptional if there were 600T remaining and a very favorable announcement attached to that.
SK1500T
EU Wind mob 440T
CANADIAN (GE) 1000T
SPOT 20% 880T
BALANCE 660T

On to the EQUITY component:
USD775 MILLION equates to AUD 1.163 BILLION (give or take a few bucks for admin).
Hypothetically ARU would require a further 500-550 million AUD (lets be positive with a round number of 500million given monies already spent previously on site from that large SPP to Gina and another).
IS THERE 600T AVAILABLE TO PLAY WITH FOR SUCH? (we certainly could do with a very favorable ann outside of what is known prior to equity raise).
WHOM DO ARU HAVE LINED UP FOR THE EQUITY REQUIRED AND HOW WILL IT PLAY OUT?
Certainly the (if) 600T could be one play.
Hyundai/Kia certainly have been discussing such (SK KEXIM is separate USD150 million facility).
HP would be highly likely given their initial substantial commitment and additional participation since.
Other unknown INSTO participation arrived at same time as HP.
Further Insto's - Australian Retirement Fund AND the like.
Retail.

HOW - well it would have to be in the form of placements and CR = dilution (no probs as seen with Lynas - Paladin just recently with share consolidations. Lynas was 10:1 from memory - ARU could at some stage down the track do a 5:1 but that's for another day)
AUD500 million circa 20c equates to 2.5 billion shares taking our SOH to approx 4.8 billion.

And with that super over run facility of 80 million from Aus Gov and the further 200 million if required to fast track full production - one would suggest - as our Insto supporters current and future - our 4x global Governments supporters and offtakers there is much to look forward to - particularly as the ex China supply exponential favorable conditions for ARU.

This is just thinking out loud - back of the envelope stuff. Never buy or sell a share on my waffle.

Just on that Beijing taking full control over the little remaining they did not previously have. Well there is a long list attached to why. A few come to mind:
So they can make any decision immediately - immediate impact type thing - on national security grounds of course.
So they can further control pricing.
So they can shut the gate on any further EU or US enquiries into unfair State subsidizing of anything from critical minerals to downstream products namely EV's and Wind Turbines (the EU report was incredible in details and some big Chinese players that participated - wow Beijing were obviously filthy).
So they absolutely 100% tag all exports of critical minerals - know where every kilo is going - shut down any shifting from friendly's.
ETC - the list is extensive and CLEARLY puts the West on further notice to Beijing's previous bans related to supply and tech of some critical minerals - thus far and no doubt they are shaping to exercise more - all to ARU's further advantage for which we are already leveraging to substantial benefits.