I hope you are right mate, but I fear a few more years of...

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28/06/23

09:54

Post #: 68506011
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Originally posted by SpiderMonkeyZ: ↑

The starting point is some takeover offer at an equivalent marketcap at a multiple of the projected AUD$500m ebitda for Phase 2. This link to a post mentions a company Montauk with a forward ebitda multiple of maybe 27 if that's accurate.

Any buyout should be in the billions considering the AUD$1.6b to build Phase 2 plus billions worth of reserves of helium and methane in the ground and AUD$500m/yr in ebitda projections.

Also Renergen has barely scratched the surface with 13.6bcf of helium 2P reserves enough to supply about 10% of the world demand for 20 years. That is based on the small area around the plant with about 3% helium and low flow rates average about 100mcf/d of raw gas hence the need for 200 to 300 wells for Phase 2. If a buy-out was on the cards you'd plonk some drill holes in the sandstone area that's not included in the reserves that in 2019 registered the huge 12% helium and a flow-rate of 850mcf/d from memory. So potentially the reserves could be increased substantially from that sandstone area and you go from 13.6bcf of helium 2P reserves to something much higher let's say 30bcf or 50bcf++ which would command a higher takeover price etc..

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/nasdaq-listing-and-fair-value.7270708/?post_id=66651172

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I hope you are right mate, but I fear a few more years of frustration and misery with the SP.
At least we have overcome one of the major obstacles with the phase II funding.
The latest helium issue is disheartening, however any of us that have been here for a few years are not surprised, just disappointed.
It will certainly be a joyous day when we get back to $3-4 and then beyond.

RLT Price at posting: $1.71 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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I hope you are right mate, but I fear a few more years of...

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I hope you are right mate, but I fear a few more years of...

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