AR3 australian rare earths limited

Ann: Consistently high grade returned from recent drilling, page-15

  1. 283 Posts.
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    The AR3 market capitalisation is $120 million not $45 million.There are 110 million shares outstanding.
    Unortunately,the company is being selective on its information and only directors and management know the
    real value at this time.This is because they have NOT:
    1.Disclosed all the results from metallurgical testing.This is of course at a prelininary stage but will be critical; in determining the amount of acid required to leach the rare earth minerals;
    2.They have not disclosed the breakdown of all the rare earth minerals in the assays;
    The only guide we have been given for the value of Koppamurra ore was on page 45 of the prospectus which stated that based on 2020 prices the basket was worth $US24.60 a kg or $US24,600 a tonne.They stated that Adamus Intelligence projected this to increase to $51.50 by 2025 or $51,500 a tonne.
    This suggests that a grade of 750 ppm a tonne of Koppamurra ore contains rare earths worth $US38 a tonne on the projected price.
    But what will be the recovery and how much acid will be required to recover the rare earths?
    The answers to these questions are critical in determining value and the numbers could be expected to imoprove with detailled testing.
    IXR has given an insight into costs and recoveries for its project in Uganda.IXR has a 50 per cent interest and is valued at around $100 million but
    is well down the path whereas AR3 has just started.
    IXR estimated its treatment costs at around $US12 a tonne and an initial 2.5 million tonnes year heap leach operation to cost around $US75 million.
    These provide very rough ball park numbers.
    Given that AR3 has come out with a resource of 39 million tonnes in a matter of months ,the region looks to have the may host hundreds of millions of tonnes that might support operations as large as 10 million tonnes a year.So if we take the rough numbers above and assume 60 per cent recovery then a 10 MTPA operation might generate $200 million a year.
    But if recoveries are 25 per cent and acid consumption is through the roof it might be a duster.
    There is an old saying:"the market is never wrong",

 
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