I think this gets taken out, so I should preface my post with that. I have no real long term view on fair value, beyond what similar transactions are getting done at.
The opening salvo in the recent MFD t/o was $1.25 which is 6.7x uEBITDA. That seems cheap, but the Genius guys have a lot more leverage in that business owning 34%. The register at EVO is comparatively wide open. So as a base case let's say 7x uEBITDA is what a takeover would look like, or at least the opening shots in a takeover battle. EVO just did $14.4m uEBITDA. I guess that would rise to $18m and at the centre level (ie before office costs) $20m.
At 7x CY22 uEBITDA it looks something like this...
uEBITDA $14.3m
Net cash: $26m
SoI: 159m
EV: $100m - $0.62/share
Cash: $26m - $0.16/share
Total @ 7x '22 EBITDA $0.78/share
AUD $0.72/share
Assuming the purchase announced yesterday goes through at 7x the numbers look like...
uEBITDA $16.4
Net cash: $19m
SoI: 159m
EV: $114m - $0.72/share
Cash: $0.12/share
Total: $0.83/share
AUD $0.76/share
If we push the boat out to 8.5x uEBITDA with the acquisitions we get something that looks like this...
uEBITDA $16.4
Net cash: $19m
SoI: 159m
EV: $139m - $0.87/share
Cash: $0.12/share
Total: $0.99/share
AUD $0.91/share
It's all swings and roundabouts until/if there's a bid, but to me, right now, this seems way under priced. Especially as the pandemic fades into the rearview.
What I find most interesting is that the price of this co has not moved despite MFD t/o giving a pretty good price signal of what others are willing to pay for centres.
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Last
72.0¢ |
Change
-0.020(2.70%) |
Mkt cap ! $114.8M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
74.5¢ | 75.0¢ | 72.0¢ | $69.51K | 94.21K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 3561 | 72.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
73.0¢ | 4098 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 3561 | 0.720 |
1 | 5000 | 0.705 |
1 | 22000 | 0.700 |
3 | 57185 | 0.695 |
1 | 7250 | 0.690 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.730 | 4098 | 1 |
0.750 | 15000 | 1 |
0.755 | 15000 | 1 |
0.760 | 18419 | 2 |
0.765 | 10000 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 23/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
EVO (ASX) Chart |
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