I think this gets taken out, so I should preface my post with...

I think this gets taken out, so I should preface my post with that. I have no real long term view on fair value, beyond what similar transactions are getting done at.

The opening salvo in the recent MFD t/o was $1.25 which is 6.7x uEBITDA. That seems cheap, but the Genius guys have a lot more leverage in that business owning 34%. The register at EVO is comparatively wide open. So as a base case let's say 7x uEBITDA is what a takeover would look like, or at least the opening shots in a takeover battle. EVO just did $14.4m uEBITDA. I guess that would rise to $18m and at the centre level (ie before office costs) $20m.

At 7x CY22 uEBITDA it looks something like this...

uEBITDA $14.3m
Net cash: $26m
SoI: 159m

EV: $100m - $0.62/share
Cash: $26m - $0.16/share
Total @ 7x '22 EBITDA $0.78/share

AUD $0.72/share

Assuming the purchase announced yesterday goes through at 7x the numbers look like...

uEBITDA $16.4
Net cash: $19m
SoI: 159m

EV: $114m - $0.72/share
Cash: $0.12/share
Total: $0.83/share

AUD $0.76/share

If we push the boat out to 8.5x uEBITDA with the acquisitions we get something that looks like this...

uEBITDA $16.4
Net cash: $19m
SoI: 159m

EV: $139m - $0.87/share
Cash: $0.12/share
Total: $0.99/share

AUD $0.91/share

It's all swings and roundabouts until/if there's a bid, but to me, right now, this seems way under priced. Especially as the pandemic fades into the rearview.

What I find most interesting is that the price of this co has not moved despite MFD t/o giving a pretty good price signal of what others are willing to pay for centres.