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Ann: Consolidated Operations Group and CML Group-Merger of Equals, page-62

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  1. 3,040 Posts.
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    ordinary1
    I agree that scale is likely to help both companies (to get wholesale funds plus a larger customer base to sell their broader product suite), but as a CGR shareholder, the price that the 2 companies are merging at makes no sense economically:

    CGR
    NPAT to members FY 2018 3.2m (EPS 1.75c)
    CGR NPAT to members FY 2019 8.4m (EPS 3.99c)

    COG
    NPAT to members FY 2018 3.8m (EPS 0.29c)
    COG NPAT to members FY 2019 4.3m (EPS 0.32c)

    GCR generated almost twice the NPAT to the benefit of their shareholders....a CGR price of 51c means CGR coming into the merger at a PE of ~12-13. COG is coming into the merger at a PE of ~29 and arguably they have a messier business (look at all the JVs and minority stakes they have......how is this scale when ~1/4rd of their NPAT is coming from small businesses that are not necessarily fully aligned and incorporated into the main business).

    CGR should have merged at a PE of ~20 which would indicate a price of ~80c (especially when you consider the capital funding group which they recently acquired and would be earning accretive this yr).

    COG imo are getting a bargain because mgmt sold out too cheaply (and imo COG are by far an inferior company as they don't seem to have a clear strategy of growth beyond acquisitions....6 last year alone)

    I hope the major shareholders (and retail shareholders) look into the detail and understand the difference....yes perhaps the price will move by 5-10% from the current price post merger, but CGR fundamentals are much stronger and at some point the market would have seen that.
 
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