Morgans are forecasting CGR EPS of 6.4cps in FY21 post integration of Classic (4.7cps in FY19, 36% eps growth in two years). This puts CGR on a takeover multiple of 7.5x proforma earnings. Scottish Pacific was taken over at 16x, its close peer.
The deal makes sense for Naos as they own both and COG gets huge EPS accretion. They would be hoping that CGR's earnings get re-rated to COG's PER. Not sure why First Samuel (though new portfolio manager probably just tipping out illiquid stocks) or management would back this deal. This is a takeover with no premium.
I am a long term investor in CGR and see a lot of upside due to very high growth and lots of re-rating potential. Every shareholder should look to vote this deal down. The raising is likely to be underwritten by Naos, increasing their chances of getting to the 75% needed for the deal to succeed.
Guess we won't be seeing guidance as promised at the AGM. Also looks like a capital raising to pay a dividend, dillutive to holders. The CGR balance sheet is in very good shape (you need to factor in receivables against debt), they don't need to raise IMO.
Not sure that the synergies will amount to much. Post the royal commission, brokers selling their own product is under the microscope and the cross selling opportunities are not likely to be huge. The main synergy is that CGR has much better debt facilities than COG, the advantage goes to COG holders.
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