I think the UBS report has done far more damage than the spot....

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Agit8a

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21/12/24

13:22

Post #: 77148563
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Originally posted by mh48: ↑

Some interesting points there, but I think the U fundamentals are still intact. The spot price seems to inordinately affect share prices. But note that the more important price - the long term contract price - has been slowly but steadily increasing month after month for the past several years. 2025 and beyond will be a period where it will become increasingly difficult to source uranium. The world is already consuming more uranium than it is producing. I refer you to this very important chart from the World Nuclear Association, showing world U production vs. requirements:
That black line representing world requirements will only be going higher with all the new nuclear plants coming online. China is building 6 new reactors every year. Even Japan is planning to restart more plants that were shut down after the Fukushima incident, and even plans to build new ones. Note that production is not even nearly moving towards meeting demand, instead it's going the other way. There are so many factors at play, including economic, geopolitical, and technical, and almost all of them push us towards the inevitability of a U bull market. Kazakh production will increasingly be going only to China, Russia, and India. The West will be left in the lurch. Production cannot just be ramped up with the flick of a switch. And here we have Peninsula, a US producer, about to start producing 600,000+ lbs per year. A drop in the ocean, really, but given that the US has only been producing less than 100,000 lbs annually for the past few years, it is quite significant, if only for symbolic reasons. This is why I love PEN. It's currently under the radar, and people hate it for very superficial reasons. It gets written off as a problem-plagued operation, or too small, and so on. If you want to buy Cameco with its P/E of 300, good luck to you, you might get a modest return over the next 5 years. Everyone's getting on the bandwagon with NexGen, but they won't be producing until 2029. Who is going to be meeting the shortfall for the next 5 years? PEN has offtake agreements for 40% of its expected production, giving it huge flexibility with the remaining 60%. New contracts with high ceilings, or selling to the the spot market, or even just storing as a future buffer. I believe the price of PEN has bottomed, and I've been pleased to load up in the past few weeks. The on-time restart marks an important inflection point for PEN. There are still uncertanties, but on the balance of probabilities, things are only looking brighter for this company. As others have mentioned, I hope PEN will get proper listing on a US stock exchange soon; I think this will do wonders for market interest in this company.

My thoughts only, and as always, it is very important to do your own research and understand what you are buying into and have an understanding of your own risk appetite. If you don't like risk or doing research, you might be better off just buying ASX:URNM. Good luck everyone, and go PEN!

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I think the UBS report has done far more damage than the spot. Institutional investors are looking for faster returns than UBS are predicting. The picture painted by UBS is a flat 2025 so large funds have sold down. As I have mentioned previously, these guys are frequently wrong

PEN Price at posting: $1.26 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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