Weekly data and thoughts..Please not that all my views are for...

Weekly data and thoughts.
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Please not that all my views are for short-term only, and I could be wrong, so please dyor.
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.Uranium Sector Overview -
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From a weekly perspective, a small gain for PEN, moved from 108.5 to 114. There was a rush towards 120s. but it seems to have fizzled out for now. Back to playing U macro. Looks like the loss from 160s may get cemented unless there is new of its own. Numbers to watch, 100 on down, 140 on the up. Personally, I had written that I had bought PEN at average 108 after a very long time, mainly to play rebalancing and hoping for a bounce back from its big drop. Neither happened, but it allowed me to get around 120, some 10% gain, not much, but I didn't intend to hold for long, as I want to see how the journey is to production, first.
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So what is happening with our leader and market direction provider - CCJ?. Last week CCJ had a big drop of 12%, DeepSeek adding the woes. This week CCJ finished marginally up around 1%, up from 49.44 to 49.93 on Friday. During the week, it breached its previous low of this phase of 48.18 and reached 46.88. So nothing sinister at this stage, but two key points were - first, its still holding this level, second, its not finding it easy to get out of this range and loss from its previous week is still there.
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What is positive -

• CCJ is holding this level
• CCJ plays a lot around this 47/52 mark, its a familiar territory, and knows how to get out from here.
• Most of the big ASX U stocks, PDN, BOE, DYL, SLX, BMN, LOT - are around 30 to 60% high from their bottom, average around 50% up, which is good
• Overall U macro has kept on improving

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What is negative -

• Spot has again dropped below 70. Last week it was 71.35, this week 69.65. Broke the psychological 70 figure, again in two weeks. As I have said before, if it stays below 70, it may sour the sentiment for short term. Many feel long term contracts are being signed at much higher levels and this number is irrelevant. Possible, but most contracts are not disclosed, so for punters this number is indicative. For good positivity, we at least need 80, a number talked about in last 4/5 years where mines could re-open and have healthy profit.
• CCJ is finding difficult to get out from here. It made new low of current phase this week. It needs to hold 45, else odds are very good hat it could slide another 10% or so and reach around 40. If it happens, it may drag down lot of U stocks with it.
• Most ASX small ad mid caps are at their 52 week lows or within 10/20% from their lows.
• Still no clear data around Demand and Supply. There is talk of Supply Squeeze happening for 7 years now, but no clear data to back, no signs yet that it has reached a level that secondary supply may be limited. Also new supply has come. Only when we get a big squeeze, we will se a massive rise, otherwise drift.

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Around Shorting - why is U stocks a favourite of Shorters?

• Most of us don't like shorters, but the reality is they are around. And doing a legitimate business under current provisions.
• BOE and PDN are top 2 shorted stocks across the whole of ASX which as more than 2200 stocks. Fact.
• DYL is in 9th place, so 3 in top 10.
• There are 3 other big U stocks, SLX, BMN, LOT. They are in top 50. So all 6 big U stocks in top 50.
• So we have been targeted. Why? Do shorters feel they can make money, easy money by shorting big U stocks? Whether we like it or not, we have to accept that at this stage they feel they can make money by shorting. Hence they are there.
• All these 6 stocks are around 30 to 50% above their lows (except SLX), so its not like shorters have been able to push all these stocks to their 52 week lows.
• On the flip side, all these stocks, except SLX, are 30 to 50% down from their recent high. So depending on when the they may have started, if from high, they could be in money, if from low, it may be hurting them. So its not easy for shorters too. At this stage its no one-way traffic
• I am not trying to get to core around shorting. I am just stating some facts and numbers. Each of us can decide how to interpret.
• U stocks have been very volatile. They gain 100% and then lose it all. Why? Fundamentals don't change dramatically, but share prices do, why? Its a small sector, can easily be played around by only handful of big players. There is no clear data available on Supply and Demand, so lot of black holes. Helps shorters too.
• There is one other thing which often comes to my mind. These shorters, I feel, I could be completely wrong though, are generally bigger players than us retail. They may know more. They may have more fire power. They may have ability to sustain or carry losses for some time. Above all I feel, we can ignore it. They are not fools who have made mistake and got into a costly gamble without knowing consequences. Many are pros. So it requires more attention. Easy to bash them, but that may get over some frustration, may not solve the problem
• The good part of shorting is the short squeeze. When it happens, there may be dramatic rise in share prices. Lets hope one is round in the corner.

So may happen next week? On Friday, though general markets were weak and SP 500 lost around 1%, most US U stocks were in green. CCJ gained around 2.5% on Friday. So we may start the week on Monday with some hope, but I feel, no major movement, few percentages up and down. Then we wait to see how CCJ tracks on Monday. Needs to hold here, get towards 58 then, and finally above 62. Spot Futures need to get back to 70, which is just a whisker away, but more towards 80. If both CCJ and Spot play favourably, then good chance of a decent gain. Lets hope it plays that way.
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Here is the Figures for the Week:.
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