Ann: Consolidation/Split - PEN, page-317

Weekly data and thoughts.
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Please not that all my views are for short-term only, and I could be wrong, so please dyor.
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.Uranium Sector Overview -
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From a weekly perspective, PEN had another big drop, from 87 to 77, around 11%. Last week it dropped 13%, coming down from 100. it also made a new 52 week low of 76. Last week it made a new low of 86. I was very tempted to buy but have held back. Reason being PEN price action could be determined by its own play - towards production. So now 2 factors have to improve, U macro and PEN play. With other U stocks, if U macro turns, they will go up. So less risk there. Just my opinion, so please dyor. On the flip side some may feel that its own announcement could give much bigger rise. Possible, but the way play is happening, odds are not very high for that. But can happen.
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But there may be signs of reversal, as mentioned below. Lets hope it plays that way.
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Lets look at 3 key indicators that provide market direction for short term, same as I have been doing for last few weeks -

• CCJ - Lost around 5% for the week, last week 44.04, this week 41.83, and went below 40 this week
• BOE/PDN - Lost around 7%/6% for the week, so similar loss as CCJ
• Spot Futures - Lost around 3% - Moved from 65.55 to 63.65 this week,

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So what are the numbers telling? Last few weeks I have been writing that we are in a very weak zone. There were small gains made by CCJ and Spot last week, but now they are back in red for this week. So the downturn continues and no strong signs of reversal, yet. For last few months I have been saying that if CCJ loses 45 there is a very good chance of it at least playing 38/40. This week it reached 39.31. This is a pattern play and it seems the pattern is working. Not sure if it has bottomed though.

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What are the signs that weakness continuing-

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• CCJ dropped 5%, BOE/PDN - 6% - So stocks are going down still
• Many stocks making new 52 week lows. Some big stocks reaching within 5/10% of its lows, buffer of 50% gone. They may make a low.
• Spot futures is now finding difficult to get over 70, sentiment number is 80, so far below that. Any drop below 60 will not be good.
• Previously we used to get some bumps, Kaz decline production, Russia ban, US initiative etc - no big positive event/announcement has happened for quite sometime to give a boost or arrest the decline
• I still feel the sector is played by some big entities. Its not very big. Lot of numbers are black box - no one knows clearly, So easy to create a hype, or a drop/gain and play the innocent
• The ETF of URNM, representing average across number of stocks, made a new 52 week low this week on 31.93. So the average is saying we are at 52 week low. It represents how other U stocks are performing. Since then has recovered to 33.45 - still in big danger zone of holding 30
• Trump drama is keeping general markets in check, anything deteriorating there will not help the cause.

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Last week I wrote about how U stocks make 50 to 100% gains and then give away. In a very cyclical manner. Sometimes every 6 months. If one looks at the numbers, some may think its a planned activity, the precision and repeated behaviour. We don't know what is the cause, but I do numbers, and I can see a clear pattern. I know I can't change, so have adapted and play to this pattern.
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Is there a saving grace? Yes, I feel. Last year in March, exactly one year back, CCJ made a low at 39.03. Then it went on a merry way making new high at 56.24. Then after 5 months in August 2024, it made a new low at 35.43. Then it went on a merry way and made a new high at 62.55. This week CCJ touched 39.31. So time wise (roughly 6 months), number wise (play in 30s), CCJ is nearly ready for a reversal. Its difficult to pick bottom. There is no guarantee any reversal will happen. I have taken a calculated risk based on pattern and have been buying U stocks. First of 3 lots. Will watch next week to add/subtract. But sector is volatile, so please dyor.
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So what may happen next week? On Friday US U stocks played weak. Moderate not big. General markets moderate green. So a tentative start on Monday waiting for overnight US play.

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Here is the Figures for the Week:.
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