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PEN peninsula energy limited

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Just pray that in to the future PEN does not do what it has done...

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21/10/24

17:48

Post #: 76228067
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Originally posted by dc1234: ↑

An important week coming for the stock. And maybe for the sector - all U stocks. writing on this stock after long time.
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I bought PEN this week at 10c. Based on my trading pattern, it sits on average. So I thought I will include PEN in the mix. PEN has been screaming that its going to produce in Q4 - not many seem to be listening. But that could change. Lets see.
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CCJ has shown the way, but does it mean all U stocks will reap the same benefit?
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CCJ has made new highs. But many ASX U stocks are well down from their recent highs. The question is - will only some stocks, like CCJ or US U stocks make the most of this phase, or will ASX U stocks come back?
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The current numbers are not good for ASX U stocks. CCJ/UEC etc are on their all time highs. Many ASX U stocks are still down 30 to 40% from their recent highs. Why is that?. I feel the rise is based on big buys happening in US. They see CCJ/UEC etc. They don't see PDN/DYL etc - they see, but I mean they are mostly looking at their playing field, OZ is far away. So we have to do catching up, but more importantly, have to find similar buyers for ASX U stocks like US U stocks. It may lag or may never happen and we may always lag. There are no answers, but one to observe and follow. That's my observation based on price action and trading patterns, please dyor. What it also may say, is to maximise gains, better to play US U stocks till others catch up.
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Also most gains are being made by bigger stocks, and small to mid cap U stocks are not getting much gain out of this rally - why is that?. We will never know the answer perfectly. My view is that the rally is being fuelled by bigger players (maybe institutional or big brokers/traders). Not by retail. They tend to buy a few stocks. Usually bigger stocks. So unfortunately, retail is not driving the sector, hence not all stocks are increasing. So a similar differential play happening between US and ASX U stocks, is also happening between ASX big stocks and small/mid stocks. That's the observation, based on price action and trading pattern. What it also may say, that if one has to play ASX U stocks, better to play big U stocks, till others catch up.
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U sector is doing great. U stocks very well. PEN too is around 30% below its recent high of 14.5. CCJ is 5% above its high. that's the differential. Hopefully we catch up.
.Personally I am playing PEN with a moderate holding of buy average of 100 for this phase. I play phase to phase. New phase started this week.

This is what I have written about U sector in my Weekly Report this week on AGE thread. Anyone more interested in other sectors, general markets, etc, look at my other posts around the weekly report, as I write that on one thread only.
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Uranium Sector overview- I have been writing for last few months months, May end top, July end bottom, September end top. My last thinking which I wrote was - "Will CCJ do a new high above 56.24 or do a back test of 45 - which one will happen first? I don't know". Now we know. CCJ did a new high of 58.64 this week. There was some chance of 45 test, I was waiting, but fundamentals too strong. Amazon wants to invest $500m in nuclear for their needs. That news stymied any thoughts of 45. Before that Microsoft and Google committed themselves. These are big tech companies that drive the stock market. The new AI revolution. They need power to fuel this journey. Clean power. Nuclear power. So indirectly these big companies are now going to drive the Uranium industry. The Uranium industry comparatively is much small, smaller than many of these big stocks. US market size is only $50b, rest of the world maybe another $50, so all up $100b (+/-) for the whole world is total nuclear industry. In comparison, Amazon 2 trillion. So if things go well, because of its small size, big increases can happen. The cost of Uranium fuel to a Nuclear Power plant is around 10%, so if Uranium price increases a lot, it will still be affordable. So lots of opportunities are there and price can increase a lot, making bigger profits for companies. But Spot price is sitting at 80s after reaching 106 in January. Its better than 40/50 2 years back, but needs to go higher. I feel in this run CCJ will reach between 65 to 70. Anytime it drops over 10% from its high, caution required. The sector has been played before. Just 2 months back, nearly all ASX U stocks dropped 50% from their high. They have not yet recovered to their high, even though CCJ has. So its volatile. I am now playing U sector, but there are no guarantees, so please check your risk/reward and dyor

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Just pray that in to the future PEN does not do what it has done many times before to investors, not fulfil promises, generally frig about and slowly but surely oversee a fall in sp back under $0.10. My take on PEN is that it is set up to feed the board, major investors and oppie holders and management. Investors come last. For PEN tragics on this thread I do hope I am wrong.
PEN Price at posting: 10.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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