Ann: Consortium increases cash consideration to $9.53 per share, page-104

The key is Brookfield need full ownership as the consortium needs to split up the spoils, unable to get full ownership makes it almost impossible for them to do it. With AusSuper in it we are likely to get a fuller valuation. Likely scenario I think could happen:-
1- 23/11 the bid fails, Origin price drops and Brookfield consortium comes back with another offer after negotiation with AusSuper with an offer of likely above $10
2- 23/11 bid fails, Origin price drops and Brookfield launch a takeover bid for majority at most likely the same $9.53 and acquires more than 50%, then after 6 months offers to buy the remaining shareholdings at a full valuation.
3- 23/11 the bid fails, Origin BOD propose distribution of Octopus shares to shareholders and Brookfield Consortium launch a revised offer for the remaining operation at a lower price than $9.53 but resulting in a higher value for shareholders and no one lose face.

I feel with amount of effort going into it, the consortium isn't going to gave up. I started to buy back in at $8.5 will continue to increase my holdings as price drift down.