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$10.37 origin energy limited

Ann: Consortium increases cash consideration to $9.53 per share, page-106

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Odds&Evens

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03/11/23

15:36

Post #: 70716202
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Originally posted by discreet: ↑

The key is Brookfield need full ownership as the consortium needs to split up the spoils, unable to get full ownership makes it almost impossible for them to do it. With AusSuper in it we are likely to get a fuller valuation. Likely scenario I think could happen:-
1- 23/11 the bid fails, Origin price drops and Brookfield consortium comes back with another offer after negotiation with AusSuper with an offer of likely above $10
2- 23/11 bid fails, Origin price drops and Brookfield launch a takeover bid for majority at most likely the same $9.53 and acquires more than 50%, then after 6 months offers to buy the remaining shareholdings at a full valuation.
3- 23/11 the bid fails, Origin BOD propose distribution of Octopus shares to shareholders and Brookfield Consortium launch a revised offer for the remaining operation at a lower price than $9.53 but resulting in a higher value for shareholders and no one lose face.

I feel with amount of effort going into it, the consortium isn't going to gave up. I started to buy back in at $8.5 will continue to increase my holdings as price drift down.

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yes I agree - they need full ownership in order to make any significant investment and maximise their tax position - interesting times

ORG Price at posting: $8.41 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $10.37		Change 0.180(1.77%)		Mkt cap ! $17.86B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$10.18	$10.41	$10.14	$43.09M	4.170M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	1011	$10.36

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$10.38	22079	3

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	13257	10.330
2	39866	10.320
1	5859	10.310
1	5281	10.300
1	8222	10.290

Price($)	Vol.	No.
10.380	22079	3
10.390	23550	1
10.400	882	1
10.410	64	1
10.420	19071	5

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