Bang on the money @sharerookie! Well done.
AustralianSuper buys more Origin Energy shares in takeover standoff
Sarah Thompson, Kanika Sood and Emma Rapaport
Nov 2, 2023 – 4.51pm
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AustralianSuper was seeking to increase its blocking stake in Origin Energy via Macquarie Capital’s equities desk, after it rejected a sweetened $9.53-a-share bid from Brookfield and EIG on Thursday morning.
Origin Energy CEO Frank Calabria surprised investors on Thursday morning. James Alcock
The country’s largest superannuation fund sent out Macquarie to buy 21 million Origin shares at $8.65 a share after market close. AusSuper’s $8.65 a share offer was at an 18¢ premium to Origin’s last close, and was targeted at fast-money funds nervous that the $20 billion takeover was set to fail.
It would take its stake to about 15 per cent.
The buying wraps up a hectic day for Origin Energy. Suitors Brookfield and EIG Partners increased their offer to $9.53 a share from $8.81, only for AusSuper to say it would reject the new bid.
AusSuper’s buying shows it will do more than just vote its 13.67 per cent stake against the bid in an effort to block the deal. It could, in theory, buy as much as 19.9 per cent, before triggering any obligations to make a takeover offer of its own.
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The more shares AusSuper buys, the harder it is for Brookfield and EIG to complete their $20 billion scheme of arrangement. Of course, the bidders would have loved for the scheme vote to get through, which would have delivered 100 per cent of Origin Energy to their stables.
But with a stubborn shareholder still unhappy, Brookfield and EIG would be thinking hard about their Plan B. That, in this case, is an off-market takeover bid with a 50.1 per minimum acceptance rate. However, the Plan B is just that – a plan – with shareholders yet to be offered any detail on how it would actually work.
The saga, which has been going on for nearly 15 months, has provided plenty of work for bankers. Origin Energy is being advised by Barrenjoey and Jarden; EIG is leaning on JPMorgan and UBS; and Brookfield has Citi and MUFG in its corner. Lastly, AustralianSuper has had Lazard’s bankers picking fights on Origin’s fundamental value on its behalf.
Origin’s shareholders have had to sit on the edges of their seats from the very start, first as they waited a rather long time for the bidders to firm up their original bid, then as they weighed ACCC concerns, and finally as murmurs about opposition to the deal on price grew into an aggressive activist campaign from AustralianSuper.
It is also the third deal in the past month, where a deep-pocketed investor has torpedoed a scheme bid. Gina Rinehart kicked off the trend, first spoiling Albemarle’s party at Liontown Resources and that of SQM at Azure Minerals.
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