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I read here yesterday that this duck may be cooked from clearly...

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Merchant2000

20,601 Posts.

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09/04/24

10:48

Post #: 73254249
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Originally posted by chuk: ↑

According to the company, the actual number to get into production was US$26mill. That number might now be a little lower due to what has been spent on the project since that number was put out in December. It wasn't clear in the announcements if that included working capital but from the December presentation, slide 27; " US$26 million left to spend to get into production" That sounds to me like it could have included working capital and that's the feedback I got from the company when I asked that question this week (including that the number is now lower than $26mill due to what was recently spent).
US$26mill, (probably less now), less US$14mill from the IDC leaves up to US$12mill. That is A$18mill. The original cr was not aiming for anywhere near that much because the company was and still is pursuing other debt options.
Yes, the company is low on cash and that reduces their bargaining power but it all needs to be put into perspective.
Perhaps another A$10mill left to raise after this cr and after the IDC is confirmed, hopefully mostly from other debt, on a project with a NPV of over A$300mill. That's not as bad a situation as some here suggest.
Even if we see say up to 25% dilution from before this cr to get us into production (won't need to be that much if other debt comes through along with IDC), that brings the mc up to around A$100mill (at the last sp) versus a NPV of three times that and once in production most companies trade well above their NPV which could mean a sp of 30c plus after production begins. The NPV will also be higher now with much larger production numbers for years 1-7 now expected versus the DFS.

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I read here yesterday that this duck may be cooked from clearly a knowledgable investor who knows how risky this end of ASX really is

What negotiating power does one have when company has no money left - insolvent without a rescue plan at this point in time

@chuk Thanks and you were cautioned

Riverflows has it 100% on the money and anything else - sugar coating serves no purpose

IMO

Last edited by Merchant2000: 09/04/24

MNB Price at posting: 9.2¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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