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20/03/20
12:52
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Originally posted by danhoff:
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I bought some more today. 83 after the announcement. Should have waited for 80 cents. Oh well. You know I watch this share every few minutes every day. In the 4 pm auction appeared a seller: 400k shares at 77 cents. They just flushed out a 75k seller at 79 cents. And they removed their 400k 77 cent sell. And some lucky guys bought at 79 cents. I can guarantee you the 45k buy sitting at 79 cents (matching the flushed out seller) was the same person who put the 400k for sale at 77 cents. So the person with 400k, now has 445k shares. This is my belief. But that said, my big holding (for me) has fallen from 96 cents to 79 cents. Which, in fact, was where the price was before the virus and before PEP. So based on conservative PE, cash flow, etc, Mr Market has ZEN at 79-80 cents. And with the small PPA extension, Zenith is in a better financial position.... in my opinion. BUT I SURE CAN BE WRONG!!! I was thinking what would Doug and Hamish and Graham think / do if PEP pull out. They would be really pissed off. And I will send them a email and say 'if PEP pull out, your shares will be worth $2 in 18 months'. I know these guys know how to run and grow a BOO company. If PEP pull out it means the price of gold is going higher, which means Zenith is better. Maybe I am just trying to convince myself. I hope I have done that (for me). Remember, this is just my thinking. In any case, the markets have fallen 30%. And we have not. Hooray! Good job you outback, power stations... not connected to the world. I changed my sentiment to buy, since I bought today!
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Originally posted by danhoff:
↑
I bought some more today. 83 after the announcement. Should have waited for 80 cents. Oh well. You know I watch this share every few minutes every day. In the 4 pm auction appeared a seller: 400k shares at 77 cents. They just flushed out a 75k seller at 79 cents. And they removed their 400k 77 cent sell. And some lucky guys bought at 79 cents. I can guarantee you the 45k buy sitting at 79 cents (matching the flushed out seller) was the same person who put the 400k for sale at 77 cents. So the person with 400k, now has 445k shares. This is my belief. But that said, my big holding (for me) has fallen from 96 cents to 79 cents. Which, in fact, was where the price was before the virus and before PEP. So based on conservative PE, cash flow, etc, Mr Market has ZEN at 79-80 cents. And with the small PPA extension, Zenith is in a better financial position.... in my opinion. BUT I SURE CAN BE WRONG!!! I was thinking what would Doug and Hamish and Graham think / do if PEP pull out. They would be really pissed off. And I will send them a email and say 'if PEP pull out, your shares will be worth $2 in 18 months'. I know these guys know how to run and grow a BOO company. If PEP pull out it means the price of gold is going higher, which means Zenith is better. Maybe I am just trying to convince myself. I hope I have done that (for me). Remember, this is just my thinking. In any case, the markets have fallen 30%. And we have not. Hooray! Good job you outback, power stations... not connected to the world. I changed my sentiment to buy, since I bought today!
Expand
Originally posted by danhoff:
↑
I bought some more today. 83 after the announcement. Should have waited for 80 cents. Oh well. You know I watch this share every few minutes every day. In the 4 pm auction appeared a seller: 400k shares at 77 cents. They just flushed out a 75k seller at 79 cents. And they removed their 400k 77 cent sell. And some lucky guys bought at 79 cents. I can guarantee you the 45k buy sitting at 79 cents (matching the flushed out seller) was the same person who put the 400k for sale at 77 cents. So the person with 400k, now has 445k shares. This is my belief. But that said, my big holding (for me) has fallen from 96 cents to 79 cents. Which, in fact, was where the price was before the virus and before PEP. So based on conservative PE, cash flow, etc, Mr Market has ZEN at 79-80 cents. And with the small PPA extension, Zenith is in a better financial position.... in my opinion. BUT I SURE CAN BE WRONG!!! I was thinking what would Doug and Hamish and Graham think / do if PEP pull out. They would be really pissed off. And I will send them a email and say 'if PEP pull out, your shares will be worth $2 in 18 months'. I know these guys know how to run and grow a BOO company. If PEP pull out it means the price of gold is going higher, which means Zenith is better. Maybe I am just trying to convince myself. I hope I have done that (for me). Remember, this is just my thinking. In any case, the markets have fallen 30%. And we have not. Hooray! Good job you outback, power stations... not connected to the world. I changed my sentiment to buy, since I bought today!
Expand
Please read Page 11 of the Scheme Impementation Deed (ASX release 6/3)- the deifnition of "Material Adverse Change". It explicity prevents PEP from pulling out the deal if the chang/event/occurance or matter that impacts EBITDA i related to a Pandemic. The word "pandemic" is in there in (g). They would only be able to pull out if this event hurt Zenith much more than others in the industry (last para). It looks very hard for PEP to pull out. Especially since the positive EBITDA from new contracts also have to be added in - para after (c). These douments are crafted very carefully. Zenith had top qality law firm - Allens Linklaters on their side. They are one of the top firms in public M&A. I would back this document.