Been meaning to post my takeaways from the 1H result for ages...

Been meaning to post my takeaways from the 1H result for ages but have been slack. Its now halfway through the 2H and we have a pretty good idea how the FY18 willpan out.

Comments re 1H result

1. As MND had indicated back at the AGM in Nov 1HFY18 was going to be smashing and the firm delivered gains of over 30% across all key items.

2. Longish term maintenance contracts continue to grow.

3. Itcthys construction provided a big boost with work to last until end of FY.

4. MND moved US workshop to Houston but contracts signed were less than i expected esp as shale is now a Trillion dollar industry!

5) Renewable energy JV got off to a flying start a yr ago followed by another wind farm contract in July. MND remain very optimistic but nothing announced since then.

To help analyse a company i write a list of knowns/unknowns. List not comprehensive and i'll add more when i think of them.

Knowns.
MND very good at what they do.
Macro in resources remains modest at best.
Oil aside, commodity prices incl. IO have fallen over past 2 months.
Numerous Li mines are under contraction in WA a MND stronghold.
MND SP has fluctuated massively over past several months and now at 6 mth low.



Unknowns
Will MND gain more work during Li construction boom?
Will directors sell more shares if SP shoots up again?

What do i expect?
I'm sticking with my forecast from a couple of months ago for FY18 EPS to come in at around 75c.
Assuming no general crash, I expect SP (currently $15.20) to fluctuate between $13 - $16 over next few months.
Expect base metals and esp IO continue to weaken.

What do i want?
My forecasts on the thread over past few years re MND revenue, earnings, divs etc have been pretty much spot on. But I've constantly underestimated how strongly Mr Mkt reacts to any good news and am amazed when SP leaps 20+% in space of a couple of weeks! I'm wanting the SP to jump back say $18-18.50 so i can re-open some shorts and (hopefully) longs can take profits.