Great point Mal. Hindsight offers such wonderful conviction doesn't it? I get the sense that a lot of people look to those who made the decision to invest in the sector back in early 2016 (CY), with exaggerated esteem. Who was to know that the downturn wasn't going to run much deeper? I don't mean that the market cycle could have had further to fall, I mean that industry revenues could have continued to fall and margins continued to contract. That post you cite highlights my trepidation at the time. This is why my investment in the sector was quite modest. I clearly had inadequate conviction (in hindsight).
The irony is that if the sector's fortunes had continued to deteriorate, I firmly believe I would have benefited enormously, for three powerful reasons: (1) I would have committed more capital, (2) my average purchase price would have been more attractive, and (3) the likes of MND would have likely come out of the cycle in an even stronger industry position, thanks to their balance sheet strength and other competitive advantages.
MND Price at posting:
$15.07 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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