Hi Mike.....we could both be very wrong. After all we are all speculating based on limited information. If the facts were all as indisputable as some would like to think then discussion and opinion is pointless.
I do take your point and was wrestling with this as I was reviewing the various discussions on these boards. What you describe is the value of conventional, and I guess in particular - Alpha - as an "insurance policy" in the unlikely event that 2V fails. I don't believe that the land extensions were a form of extending the insurance policy but rather a reflection of their belief in the likelihood of the success scenario. The acquisitions potentially increase the main prize by a multiple factor and secures the means to unlocking it.
In the event of a 2V fail, we will have a well bore with permitting to sidetrack to Alpha, cash of about US$4-5m (assuming we do not exercise our 30% buy-in to BEX acreage) and a market cap of ....???. My guess is not much as we will have unproven conventional and insufficient funds to prove it. If we can somehow prove it with the cash we have in the kitty, we will not be in a position to CR to fund development and are therefore likely to have to farm-out most of it. I suspect that the entity that exploits that insurance policy will be very different to what we currently have. Many LTH's will abandon ship with still handsome profits. There may still be life left after all this and a Phoenix may rise from the ashes (or is that a Lazarus rising from the dead?).....but in essence the journey we have invested in financially and emotionally - is over.
In a sense this is just an academic discussion, and there are many who get stressed about the appearance of negative sentiment on these boards. I am not trying to provide a negative sentiment. I am just proferring an opinion that 2V is (as good as) a binary outcome situation for the dream that I invested in. Helps me keep a clear idea about my investment strategy and a way to ward off the emotional attachment that I readily fall into.
I believe the chances of this scenario are far less than implied in the publicly stated Pg/Pc of 50-60%. I believe there is far more information sitting with PB and DW than have been divulged to the market. I am fully expecting to cash in at the terminus of this train ride. But I view the 2V results as being a gate to that journey continuing. It will be either closed or open (can't think of a less binary analogy here).
All IMO obviously and hope my convoluted ramblings make sense. As always, I am just as likely to be totally wrong as I am to be partially right - another binary outcome
(20min delay)