The production cost increase may not necessarily be related to increasing production rate. It might be related to a higher cost per ton, as the cost is directly related to the mining plan and the status of ore body we are at.
I would not be surprised if the
strip ratio increases further temporarily if the mining front is at a lower concentration.
This is from the Tawana merger scheme booklet, research by BDO. Seems that at 2020 period theres a large waste body in between, i.e. higher strip ratio.
The mining plan may have changed. So it’s hard to predict actual costs. But I would not be surprised if strip ratio is going up and cost per ton is going up.
From same report, production cost is projected to be 230M to 260M per year. With the current production rate 160kt/year, seems hard to generate enough revenue to offset the costs, even if all products are sold.
The only way I see this is a profitable business, is to complete the fines circuit, increase nameplate to 300kt, and sell all of that products. Hard to achieve in the current spod environment.
Till that happens, the company will be making losses of about 50M/year. We have already seen debt draw down 20M and CR 30M this year. Hope it can last until next year, but it’s looking increasingly difficult.
