Originally posted by binwood
On a scale of 1-10 how likely fo you rate this scenario mineralised?
Good to see you are still with us. You have been fairly quiet on SM recently.
If I had to quantify it I would say slightly more than 50%. My uncertainty is around putting the finance package together (thanks mining code!). Based on the content of this presentation as pointed out above they are closer, so I'm leaning past 50%.
From memory in 2017 Huayou paid something equivalent to US$120M for a similar sized resource with half the cobalt grade/content, and a fraction of the confidence level Kalongwe is in terms of measured/indicated resource and metallurgy (how much has been spent on Kalongwe so far? $30m+?). That deal also came with Gecamines attached, who are such a pain in the ass (they will want a pound of flesh at every stage), and will need a share allocated to govt that won't be coming out of Gecamines piece. US$120 = $167M AUD ~ 60c Nzuri terms. Give it a kick for having double the cobalt and half the headaches and they have a ~15% starting position at 25c average cost and I think 70-80c. If they want satellite deposits they need to pay more, looking for 80-90c or we hang on to them
Huayou are ambitious and this is not a material deal for them in terms of dollars, but will be a material increase in confidence of their growth plans. The artisanal pits they have set-up are simply laughable from a growth perspective. Never mind the customer concerns, the variable yields in refining etc.
They need a push to pull the trigger, off take will be it I think. Hope?
