You're wrong.. There is no such thing as too much GOT :) Look....

You're wrong.. There is no such thing as too much GOT

Look. There is certainly potential for things to happen. Maybe I am being too pessimistic. It's just that they're not really planning to do anything in the way you'd normally plan to do something. There is no tentative "drill plan subject to rig availability" where they show you want they want to do on a timeline but have given themselves wiggle room to back out. It's also about to hit the wet and the only thing in EARS is for Praslin North and Ophir.
They have the $9M carry until end of 2016. Maybe their hand is forced by this deadline and they do something at Ungani during the wet even though it's not the best idea operationally.. Maybe it's something like U4 and has already been submitted for approval ages ago. Maybe they just prepay the contractor on Dec 31 to drill in April/May? Maybe it's used on the export solution and not drilling? Maybe it's simply renegotiated to a lower amount but with another year's expiry? Lots of maybes.

I don't think they'll drill something new like a 100% Anderson target currently. They'd be more about the commitment wells like Ophir which should have been drilled two months ago or maybe folding an Anderson target around Ungani that had a dual target in the dolomite like UFW into the $9M carry.

They do say "Laurel farm-in partner planned to be introduced this year" maybe this is true, maybe it's just a plan like anytime I plan to be intimate with my wife but the Barry White doesn't work... Personally it doesn't seem like they're bargaining from a great position of strength atm, but maybe they won't be particularly any stronger in 6 months either and they need to crap or get off the pot.
Then again they look like they want to fund the next stage by getting someone to prepay for the gas rather than farm down their interest. I suppose it's possible for Coogee to stump up and prepay for feedstock for their proposed gas to methanol plant given they are a significant holder and whatever low price they'd pay would partially be paying themselves. Honestly I'd be pretty happy with that (not necessarily Coogee but anyone) as it would retain our high ownership %.

Their "modest operational program" includes a horizontal well (or specifically a horizontal section) and testing. Even with cheaper drilling currently a horizontal and testing is expensive. I would expect Buru's share to be close to ~$12M at a very rough guess without knowing anything about what current prices are but noting they spent ~$5M on the Laurel testing in the June quarter. I don't see how they're going to finance that via current cash reserves. They will need to raise money either from prepaid gas, farm down or CR/placement. And again I don't see anything recent about a Valhalla-2 horizontal and testing in EARS. It would take months to get approved.

They do have decent cash in that they're not about to run out, they just can't do anything really exciting. Maybe it's just a case of waiting for a farm in/gas prepay and suddenly we're looking at a box of chocolates again. I guess the highest chance of a near term surprise is how they use that $9M freecarry. That has to be done soon and therefore there has to be news soon. It's why I say 3 months. Traditionally xmas is a low during the wet until people either start looking forward to the dry or they release plans for next dry. So I'd expect some kind of news in December but I sort of expect it to be forward focused not something happening immediately on the ground unless things start gearing up on the approvals side. It would be great to get a rundown on the target evaluation they've done and get people excited for the exploration possibilities. Gear people up for a conventional gas farm out at the deeper Ungani targets. Maybe have a prepaid gas contract to tout if their Barry White worked. Outline a plan for a horizontal in the Laurel, Ophir and whatever else. Announce the several month gear up to producing oil at Ungani has been initiated. Maybe a CR follows maybe it doesn't depending on how much money came in from corporate maneuvers.

Maybe it's only one of those things. Or two. Maybe it's more silence. Maybe news is staggered over a couple of months. Something on the $9M carry in December, even if it's just a renegotiated amount and then maybe a wait until March for something more exciting.
I just think.. Don't expect it. Sure, bargain hunt over the next few months in expectation of 2017 being a better year, but don't expect something amazing to swoop in next week and save whatever red is on your screen. Prepare for a 3-6 month wait and if you're surprised then excellent. If not then expectations were met. I'm far more interested in news flow next September than next month.