Ann: Corporate Presentation - February 2021, page-43

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GCar

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11/02/21

19:01

Post #: 50909512
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Originally posted by The Dean ↑

Ahh gcar... note the last line below

[email protected]@[email protected] STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED+Rahul Anand, CFAEQUITY ANALYST+61 2 9770-1136Shannon J SinhaRESEARCH ASSOCIATE+61 2 9770-1334Alexander Barkley, CFAEQUITY ANALYST+61 2 9770-1311Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the2021 Institutional Investor All-Asia ResearchTeam Survey. Request your ballot here.Australia Materials/ AustraliaStock RatingUnderweightIndustry ViewAttractivePrice targetA$1.45Up/downside to price target (%)(46)Shr price, close (Jan 29, 2021)A$2.6952-Week RangeA$3.29-0.68Sh out, dil, curr (mn)405Mkt cap, curr (mn)US$841EV, curr (mn)US$765Avg daily trading value (mn)A$6Fiscal Year EndingFiscal Year Ending12/1912/1912/20e12/20e12/21e12/21e12/22e12/22eModelWare EPS (US$)(0.17)(0.04)0.01(0.00)Prior ModelWare EPS(US$)-(0.01)(0.01)(0.01)Revenue, net (US$ mn)7042104102EBITDA (US$ mn)11(29)13(1)P/ENMNM154.4NMEV/EBITDA17.4NM51.1NMFCF yld ratio (%)**54.4(5.2)(0.6)0.1Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWareframework** = Based on consensus methodologye = Morgan Stanley Research estimatesStock RatingUnderweightIndustry ViewAttractivePrice TargetA$1.45Galaxy Resources LtdGalaxy Resources Ltd|| Asia Pacific Asia PacificHousekeeping post DecQproduction resultWe update our numbers following the DecQ productionupdate. Our price target rises 10cps to A$1.45/sh and weremain UW.WHAT'SCHANGEDGalaxy Resources Ltd (GXY.AX)FromToPrice TargetA$1.35A$1.45Why are we Underweight? Lower recoveries impacted costs. As such recoveryguidance for CY21 is lower than previous target of 60%. A shift to morefavorable demand for carbonate (vs. hydroxide previously) was flagged whichwould help brine producers. GXY flagged recent pricing of spodumene atUS$480/dmt CIF (MSe 1QCY21: US$455/t). GXY now estimate China inventoriesare at ~2months vs. 6 months prev. Further, a move to carbonate is now beingexpected by GXY as opposed to previous views of greater hydroxide usage whichis likely to benefit South American, brine based producers (ORE). GXY is an UWdue to short mine life and project risk concerns.

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Lol
Give me one good reason to believe their conflicted views and price targets.
If they had ANY confidence in their $1.45 target whatsoever, they would short 20% of the stock again at maximum leverage and sleep easy for 12 months.
I note they have NOT done this.
Why not?
We all know why not.

GXY Price at posting: $2.49 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
9 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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