Very good presentation we are definitely heading in the right direction I was very impressed with the mid strength lithium sulphate product makes alot of sense for the European market as waste stays on mine site.
In the slide above you can see the total costs of forming lithium chemicals with the addressable margin.
At the low end we seen sc6 at $330pt, high end at $950pt and currently $675 as Ken stated,
If we look at the new bmx platform we can have a better chance at accessing some of this margin that was to difficult to in the old school pricing mechanism connected to offtake contracts.
As the market continues to tighten and those with out offtake and relying on sport market will find it difficult to negotiate majority of the margin ie,70% odd at the peak of last cycle
Where as this time around if we manage to obtain 40-50% of entire addressable margin we could see prices of around $1900/$2470aud as Ken stated we could see prices over $1000 using the bmx platform.
Back of envelope valuations at peak price could see $1980aud after cost times a run rate of 580ktpa both plants at full swing ETA mid 2022
With a PE ratio of 10 could see a share price of $3.96 albeit Ken was looking at a 50% spot to 50% offtake ratio so could see an average price of $1350aud after cost at a share price of $2.7.
Obviously take with a grain of salt as this is speculative and there are additional variables in calcs but a good indication if we see these peak high sc6 prices this cycle based on standard run rates.
Cheers gltah
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