Compare todays updated guidance to what they said in August:
AUGUST: Sales $41m-$43m, EBITDA $6.0m-$8.0m, NPAT $4.0m-$6.0m
NOW: $38m-$42m, EBITDA $4.5m-$7.5m, NPAT $2.5m- $5.5m
And look further at today's results, which seem to suggest multiple issues: US sales, German sales, changes made to teams in US and Germany (and some extra costs? - no detail in today's announcement AFAIK), and what is happening with the mid-tier products (the presentation was very light on that IMHO). The new products might be very profitable - but we know little about their costs, or margins.
They seemed to have - and said they had - good momentum in August with sales up everywhere. Then a share placement (which is why cash is up and debt is down; not due to operating performance), including mgmt. selling shares. I just don't really understand why things have turned down so quickly/strongly. They said the problem emerged late in December. Huh? Just does not sound/feel right
There is also, in my view, quite a risk around 2H performance. Note that despite having almost 8 months of actual results, the revenue, EBITDA and NPAT ranges for the full year are now WIDER than those from August. Ie, they have less certain now, than they were six months ago. That highlights the risks in second half trading, IMHO. If I were a gambling man, I'd be picking something toward the bottom of those ranges, rather than the middle.! All IMHO.
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- Ann: Corporate Presentation March 2017
Ann: Corporate Presentation March 2017, page-9
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