Ann: Corporate Presentation - Noosa Mining Investor Conference, page-18

Interesting points made by posters of Luke's presso comments, thanks all.

The main issue of WP still being only 55-60% nameplate, 6 months until 100%, is obviously the elephant behind the price decline last few months (shipments consistently 50% of nameplate since January). Hoped those selling the rumour, the initial dummy spit had done most of the damage already, but seems not. Even effusive, strongly hinting, things all-good, Luke presso couldn;t stem the bleeding for more than a day. Comments that the market has lost faith in his confidence/guidance rings true, but what the July 10th confession didn;t quantify was the 55-60% nameplate, 6 months until 100%... seems a few more toys are getting chucked out the cot.

Conspicuously no update yet by Shaw & Partners or Morgans on FNArena, though I can't imagine they have anything nice to say, what they are saying is for private clients only. From Morgan's in May "The broker feels management is on-track to approach wet concentrator plant (WCP) design capacity and potentially achieve first end-product sales in the June quarter. A full ramp-up supports an acceleration in cash flows/de-gearing from early FY24, points out the analyst.". Bottom line, STA guided things were on close to on-track for too long, FY24 arrived in July, now it's up to 6 months slippage, contractors fault you see... credibility gawwn.

MSP issues not as poor form imo. Was always the last to be commissioned and delays with design/equipment defects perhaps picked up more recently, and now fixed apparently. MSP can only operate at 100% capacity when it's being fed by the WP at 100% capacity, which is now guided by the end of the year. The literal impact of this delay is 6 months of lower production, lower sales into possibly the last sweet spot of high min sand prices. Production delays will extend the LOM 3 months in 20-odd years, but that doesn't help cash generation today. Analysts are finance guys as much as technical, NPV is driven by early cashflow not at the end, and you can never get back today's lost cashflow from early delays.

I went bit too early as usual, didn;t expect the 6 months to reach 100% guidance tbh. Is all the bad news out and the bottom almost in is my question? I'm going to assume it is, and that Luke isn;t so dumb as to back up this month's confessionary washout with more BS that just sets STA and his credibility up for a bigger drubbing down the track. The lost early cashflow of 6 month full ramp-up slippage is a negative, but I'm going to assume it's more than priced in by now (so long as it's fixable in good time). If Luke was smart, he'd be now conservatively guiding worst case scenario, take his medicine, so he can fill in the end CY23 with positive surprises, get the price trend and his credibility heading north again.

Ignoring short term damage, and the price cycle downwards from a China/global downturn, the LT picture for STA is looking up imo. 60% of Coburn revenue is zircon, and one of my fears for zircon dominant mines was the potential entry of multiple WIM deposits in the Murray Basin mining high zircon tonnes (and good amount Hi-Ti) while chasing high monazite-xenotime for the rare earth industry. Long story short, after much research and consideration I think outside ILU's Wimmera deposit, that story is cooked. My view is the RE prices will not rise high enough to make them economic, Oz government will not subsidise them to sell very high radioactive (U&Th) monazite ot China, nor subsidise them to process the monazite here and have to deal with radioactive waste. I think the West will get is RE-needs form other deposits and China will keep supply up and RE prices down sufficient to avoid Re-perm-mag substitution and competition from too many new mines.

While my last point is strategic medium-term support at best, so doesn;t help holders facing a botched commissioning and global donwturn, it goes to heart of what supports LT valuation for STA. Being in the right commodities, selling to the right partners, at the right prices counts... and a large zircon over-supply certainly isn't going to drive LT value.

GLTAH