Been downhill ever since Luke sold at the 56c peak, but really the rot set in 12 May, when I leaks must have really got started. 20 June was the next big drop 33c on big volume which is when private briefings probably spooked the horses big time (on big volume not on this chart). Post tax -loss bounce into the 10 July shipment release with 'a bit more colour' around systemic production issues and big volume again. By then word must have been spread to most well connected players because the selling kept on except for the Noosa sales pitch intra-day mini bounce. Last two days on higher volume again as Shaws added facts to colour of what production issues really are and how long they will take to fix. Hopefully that's the final washout... now everyone is finally on the same page.
Got to say, very smelly price action considering only one material market updates 1st June between 36c and the final July 10th triggered drop to low 20's. June 1st shipment release gave no hint to the degree of production issues or length of remediation time that must have been obvious (keep in mind back then the MSP was in trouble, at least that is now looking good. Imagine if the MSP was still in the dunny
).
Anyway, that's all history now and this morning shares hit my 20.5c support reflecting the major Aug 21 CR for FID. I was back in the market myself this morning now the market has finally been updated (via Shaws which itself is shocking), no more inside info to run, funds/indexes are taking risk off the table or re-weighting, LG true believers are leaving in disgust, and Shaws are telling their clients it's time to buy back shares they were told to sell earlier, hoping the bottom is finally in. I know.... picking bottoms apt to get me smelly fingers, but all downgrades find support eventually (except those companies that go broke).
Not expecting any quick profits, still multiple risks on multiple fronts. To many believers averaged down too much, too high and will be sellers into any bounce that gets them out of jail. New buyers into higher prices will want to see proof of improvement because if they get stuck at 60% nameplate they will go broke. 36c target on confirmation production problems are fixed and nameplate is assured, which may be well under 6 months if all issues are fixed quickly. Classic punt on buying too much risk priced in after commissioning problems, when usually projects hit commissioning with "yeah, we're finally into production" rising price but not enough risk priced in. Low volume/liquidity this morning speaks to shot confidence in management/project as shellshocked buyers continue to digest just how bad things are compared to guidance/expectations...
GLTAH
(20min delay)