"~$750M accrued interest by Aug'25"... typo obviously, meant...

"~$750M accrued interest by Aug'25"... typo obviously, meant $75M.

Just to join the dots from my previous post, HAS was approx net cash/investments/debt breakeven end March (ie zero net cash/debt at current NEO price).

As per yesterday's presso, end May they had $110 cash (ie spent ~$35M in Apr-May) and required another $190M cash/debt funding to make FID. So, if they raise $190M by end of year (which would require RE prices to rise substantially because at spot prices the project is not bankable) by the time Aug 2025 comes around they would not have received any net revenue from Yangi even if it's completed.

Meaning they would require another ~$145M cap raise by Aug'25 to repay Wyloo if Twiggy wanted his loan repaid (ie $225M principle and accrued interest, less $75M sale of NEO shares around today's price).

How does a company raise $100M in share CR (assuming other $90M is more debt) by end of the year when the project is not profitable enough to repay debt at current RE prices is the first problem. Highly dilutionary, even then new investors know right through the build-commissioning risk period they are still cum-raise for another $145M if Wyloo wants out, because the share price will not be anywhere near $5.50 imo.

Why would NAIF/EFA continue to lend a huge amount of money into a project that looks uneconomic at current RE prices, even with a simple mon-con only project, almost certainly selling that to China given there are no other toll-treating monazite processing pants with spare capacity being built outside of China I know of? I understand giving economic projects a leg-up with cheap public loans, but not when they don't make sense economically, or strategically if they are selling to China (the reason for backing Yangi with public loans in the first place).

If RE prices rise strongly then the project is profitable and will get funded, although at what share price new investors are willing to risk it is unknown. If RE prices don't rise over the next two years (global downturn, RE-perm-mag substitution, perm-mag motor substitution for induction etc) it's possible other more profitable new RE mines get up and running instead and Yangi remains a stranded, undeveloped asset. RE market and prices are subjective, but that's the real gamble here because even if Yangi gets funded, being at the very back of the industry cost curve is a dangerous place to invest.

HAS is looking cheap as the price falls but for good reason. Non-development over two years sees the risk of a vicious price spiral down as the market tries to exit before a very dilutive $150M Cr in 2025 if RE prices don;t rise as predicted. That con-note debt is the real killer here, otherwise HAS could just delay construction and ride out the downturn until hopefully higher RE prices squared the circle...