I am a fellow shareholder and hate to be "that guy" and come across as a wet blanket but I had a few extra comments to add to your Analysis points 1 to 8 on Slide 12.
1. Its true that the economics may suggest that Fertilizer Production is the "highest economic value" but its also the highest upfront capital cost and the longest pathway to profitability - even longer and more capital intensive than the energy/gas option. When I say high upfront capital cost think of the cost to build the plant, re-commision the rail line and cost of storage sheds and/or an export port?
3. I don't think Prominent Hill or Olympic Dam were counting on the LCEP, I think they are already exploring other options of additional transmission lines and other backups (like diesel).
4. Fully agree that the Syngas does have natural advantages compared to Incitec Pivot process to Urea and Ammonia production
5. Your point about Incitec Pivot is well made, Phosphate Hill is being killed by gas unavailibility/gas prices but this is why they have diversified into places that have cheap gas (the USA).
7. The story of food and farmers over power is a nice one but never works against the hard core deep green opposition that is well funded and almost no media scrutiny. They will oppose any development in any location, and they don't care if its a source of gas for peak power generation, or a source of fertilizer for farmers, they will oppose any development of any scale and co-opt any ignorance, jealousy or even legitimate concerns, and muddy the waters into a story that suits them. The fact that the ALP has rolled Koutsantonis on his specific approval for the project to have a science based regulatory pathway now becomes a political football (actually a greens preference harvesting excercise) - so thats an unwelcome development for LCK but it gives them a window of opportunity to get as much of what they can permitted and approved by the current government (and preferably built) before the next state election.
8. Geographical advantages a bit limited in that the standard gauge rail line is still there but the road level crossings have all been rehabilitated and getting anything fixed/done in the way of rail lines in Australia is still prohibitively expensive unfortunately. Its still there and ma/couldy be a cheaper option than constructing a new connecting gas pipeline to the current gas pipeline network, so that may have swung the economics back towards fertiliser production?
LCK Price at posting:
14.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)