I've been running the ruler over this gas strategy change - but it looks like they are going to struggle.
Average utilisation on the NQGP’s is under 10TJ/day - the pipeline is not connected to the east coast gas network, so they either have to encourage a pipeline company to build a connection to the QGP, or transition existing customers in NQ to move to gas. Both long term items.
That leaves the gas peaking plant - these don't run 24 hours a day, but even if it did you're looking at (best) 4PJ/pa for 242MW. They want to connect another 300MW of electricity generation, which will add another (generous) 6PJ/pa. Given these are generally peaking plants, you're now in the electricity game where you have to model prices and likelihoods of generation to derive an estimate of profits. That's a tough game to get a handle on, and it can change from year to year.
QPM Price at posting:
5.3¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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