There is probably little to be gained by debating opinion – debating facts is usually more productive. This is why my previous post dwelled on subjectivity, and hence personality. I wrote,
“I rarely pay much heed to possibilities – I focus on probabilities, which being subjective, can be wrong. Even if all other things are equal, subjectivity varies from person to person, and even for an individual, it varies from situation to situation.” We look at the same world, and we are exposed to the same news, and yet you see a twenty-year problem, and I see a one-year core coronavirus problem. A quarter has already passed for the core problem, and I now think we should allow a second year for CCP to catch up to its past SP trajectory.
On the underlined
“for an individual, it varies from situation to situation”, I have in the light of reading the news decided that the core problem would last about a year, but, IMO, it will take longer for CCP's stock to get back to where it was at its recent $38+ high, which was a tad too high anyhow. For now, I think that in any one geography, the coronavirus will have a 3-month-getting-worse stint, a 6-month-getting-better stint, and a 3-month-thereafter-stint to allow things to normalise. Can I defend this contention? No. What the foregoing means is that I now think my earlier contention made in post
43732915 was too optimistic. I then opined,
“In a year or two from now, I expect the SP to be $40, and the dividend close to $1, other things being equal.” I would now not expect it to happen within a year, but I am happy with two years. What I expect, and what transpires are two different things.
The key factors that could alter my views would probably spring from CCP Announcements, including executive trades. I'll cover this later, because I think that CCP's past guidances and Don McLays trades would interest readers who have not followed CCP for a long time. Don has no reason to buy shares (shrouds do not have pockets). He has been selling down for a decade, so a great deal of significance should be attached to his buys.
(20min delay)