So a few remarks: 1. Remember Tyro prioritised business that had no terminals working. 2. Tyro would have prioritised they're best 50% of customers too (although they wouldn't say this). 3. By now the issue is being resolved by 2,000 machines a day. Now it may not have been 2,000 machines at the start of last week. But I assure you since Wednesday to Monday (today) they are getting very efficient at fixing these terminals so they may be fixing even more in a day now. But let's assume 2,000 a day since last Monday. That's 8 days x 2,000 = 16,000 terminals. How many terminals on 32,000 merchants lets assume an average of 4 per merchant that makes 128,000 terminals of that 15% being not working 19,200 not working and now 16,800 being fixed. So they have 2,400 terminals to fix (1 days work) plus noting they prioritised those who had no working terminals. So most of these terminals would be for companies with multiple terminals or customers in remote areas where pick up and returning is difficult. 4. So based on 1-3 Tyro will not purposely make the annocuement in my opinion late this afternoon to the market for two reasons. One to do as much rectification work before getting back to the market. Secondly, to call all of its institutional holders late this afternoon to reassure them they are on top of this issue and most customers are now online. This then leaves less than 10% of shares that can be traded on the ASX. So the shorters will burn. 5. Those hobby business' can go to square one if they wish. I wonder when they have a outage who they will complain too. Remmeber those really micro business 2/3 go under within 18 months in any case and really don't contribute to Tyro bottom line. And note if they were smart and bought square they should put it in the cupboard as backup and continue with Tyro as they have lower fees. My expectation is the the share price will be above $2.80 by Tuesday's close. And then possibly near $3.00 by the end of the week (if not two weeks).
TYR Price at posting:
$2.32 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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