IMO It is becoming structural. What they publicly say doesn't stack up anymore, and I tend to distrust the management team. I am patiently waiting for Feb to get an HY update and make up my mind.
- There is a risk around COVID, and I appreciate that it is out of management control.
- There is still risk with the class action on the terminal outage last year. Personally think it is a non-issue; it does remain a risk
- There was no guidance from Robbie in the AGM.
[ballpark, I haven't checked the numbers to be correct. I won't be convinced that 15% growth without Bendigo is good enough, or - again - they are falling behind with competition and it is becoming harder and hard to sell]
- It has been a year they started speaking (since the terminal outage) about the dongle. https://www.tyro.com/products/eftpos/ it is still not available? There is also nothing new coming out of payments. Given the focus on payments, they are falling behind the competition.
- eCommerce and banking was not performing in the FY20 report for me
- The platform is just a waste of time and energy. I hope to understand how you monetise updating a menu with one API call one day.
- The weekly updates and the Bendigo rollout don't make sense. Bendigo should bring around 20% extra transaction value (expected ~5bn additional Bendigo volume on ~$25bn volume), which means that the actual performance of the payments product has dropped to ~10% (was 25% growth).
I am happy to be convinced otherwise; unfortunately $2.5 - $3 seems like a realistic share price until this is resolved. They can turn it around, but the proof will be in HY results and yearly result in August. That is the time frame I am willing to wait.
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