I think you could be right, predicted 27c may be reached easily considering your understanding of the market but it is less likely to see 23. Further, there is extremely remote chance to see the 13-15c range (during which we all had unlimited opportunity to consolidate as much as we wanted or to each one's capacity. However some of us accumulated and others did not prior to rerate. And those who did to their extents are in a comfortable nice paper booked profit now. Currently we are in a 23c to say 35c range, I stretched myself to get more at 29c and even more at 23.5c both becoming slightly profitable now. Resisting the feeling to sell is based on assumption that we should be over a dollar ideally and may happen anytime (similar to the situation expecting 40c while we were at 13.5c and missing out the opportunity of sell above 40c), when new investors/interest comes in including FOMO.
I am not as much concerned about (say 600M) capital requirement as our value after becoming a lowest cost producer should be somewhere like $5000M??? (just a guess without any conviction), the 600M required, even if raise @30c = 2500M SOI, so after the dilution, we should have room for 2.5x. Any raise above that price indicates a profit to current holders for their holding and any raise below 30c would indicate vice versa. If we mange to do development on a loan, assuming at an interest say 20%, we will have 250/20=12.5 years capability to pay back interest incurred, however we should be making money to pay it back much before that. Therefore, it equates to either I do not understand how it all works or have wrong assumptions (1) we have sufficient resource size, 2) management who will deliver 3) future demand for our products at required price levels 4) we have a better chance to survive -depends on a number of variables such as a) when the going gets tough the tough gets going, ie if demand, price drops others will close down before we do due to our size and location b) mine life c) easier/cheaper processing etc
In spite of all above, it is true that there are risks, however I cannot see dilution for investment to build (above your investment price) mining capability becoming a concerning risk, this includes those who traded a bit, however SH who got in at say 42c may loose in the above scenario.
I am sure you knew this better than this but I am just sharing my thoughts in order for it to be refined for the benefit of us all. Alternatively if it can be reasoned how cap raise becomes a concern, ordinary mum and dad investors such as me could benefit. GLTAH
Apparently Don is contactable and responsive as far as I experienced so we can reduce speculation to minimum
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I think you could be right, predicted 27c may be reached easily...
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28.0¢ |
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Mkt cap ! $138.4M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
26.5¢ | 28.0¢ | 26.5¢ | $191.4K | 703.0K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
28.0¢ | 33538 | 3 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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2 | 87919 | 0.265 |
3 | 119461 | 0.260 |
6 | 303093 | 0.255 |
2 | 73000 | 0.250 |
3 | 113000 | 0.245 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.280 | 33538 | 3 |
0.285 | 22500 | 2 |
0.290 | 100000 | 1 |
0.295 | 521369 | 5 |
0.300 | 459869 | 12 |
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