re: Ann: Credit Corp Group FY13 Results Prese... Well debt...

re: Ann: Credit Corp Group FY13 Results Prese... Well debt collection is their core competency, lending to already impaired credit is harder to get comfortable with...

The analytical systems are a temporary competitive advantage. They've been able to use those actuarial smarts to price better and take share for a few years now, but that will eventually slow. If I am a competitor and hire/poach the analytics team to setup similar systems, what do you think will happen?

My argument is more or less that the quality of the growth is getting weaker in my view. Historically its come from operating excellence - now its crappy lending, offshore expansion and increased gearing.

I would also argue that getting into consumer lending may be turning the stock into what I would have considered acyclical to pro-cyclical.

Historically, poor economic conditions see increased purchasing at attractive prices, and strong conditions sees good collection - making CCP one of those rare birds you can happily hold through the cycle.

Now I think during good times both collections and lending will do well, but in bad times, the bdd's on consumer lending will chew capital and therefore provide less firepower at exactly the most opportune time for PDL purchases.

Just my thoughts as to how the CCP story is starting to change, having been a happy shareholder since 2008...