You are right - it's the big numbers that conduce to being able to use analytics so effectively. With IMF in the past the NPAT could bounce around a great deal, because even if the ratio of wins over say ten cases were constant, every year was very different because the number of settled cases was less than ten, so instead of thinking in 12-month stints, it had to be 36 or 48 months with SP wobbles being normal. I did think at the time that I should get in and trade on the wobbles, but I did not pursue the idea. I'll switch the conversation to the OBL subforum when I have more to write about.
One of the issues that has crossed my mind is that of bonds as a source of finance, and Intrum, Encore and OBL are into bonds as a funding source. The problem is that bond-sourced finance can engender a cowboy-like thinking pattern, which for PDL-based businesses has caused much mischief in the past by focusing on buying PDLs, rather than collecting on them. That is also a reason why I am not keen on capital raising as a routine.
CCP Price at posting:
$31.49 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
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