I have not accessed the full report mentioned at
https://www.morgans.com.au/Blog/2021/August/Credit-Corp-USA-Scale-Potential-About-To-Shine-Through, but from the bit that I read, it looks reasonable.
I am loath to say any more than that the SP should be where it now is – greater than $30, and less than $34. However, being in an excellent liquidity position, CCP can seize any opportunistic initiative that comes its way, and historically, these have not been rare. A positive could easily change the picture in favour of more upside, and hence my range could change, but what could the catalyst be for an upside mood swing?
Since 2016 we have seen CCP acquire NCML, and Baycorp, plus Collection House's PDL book. In ANZ, CCP is, IMO, more likely to buy secondary PDLs, as it did in relation to Collection House, than an entire operation. There would be some PDL seller resistance to CCP growing larger in ANZ, in the picture in North America would make an acquisition there easier, and sensible.
There are other initiatives on the brew, but I think these relate to relatively minor variations to what CCP does already. We know it may pursue vehicle loans again. Such initiatives are not much more than a decision to focus marketing effort, because under the hood, they fall within the concept behind Wallet Wizard. Expanding the purchase of PDLs from utilities, and expanding the agency business also falls into the more-of-the same box, and part of the reason may be to keep the Manilla operation busy. The Manilla collections capability now includes the Baycorp operation there, so it is larger than it used to be, I presume.
The FY21Annual Report added “education financiers” to its list of clients, and I presumed it relates to the US business (collecting student loans). In a way, that is “new”. However, it also raises the possibility of having a Manilla-like collections facility to service the US, because that facility was set up to handle utility debt in Australia. Manilla now also supports agency collections. Further, I think Wallet Wizard is purely an Australian service, so something like it could be expanded to the US.
Anyhow, something should pop to the fore, and I am inclined to think it may be in the US. I wonder why the SP has shifted up in recent days?
(20min delay)